2026 Real Estate Forecast: The Aftermath of the 10.15 Measures and the Balloon Effect (Guri, Hwaseong)

[The Paradox of Regulation and Market Shift]

The new year of 2026 has dawned, but the real estate market remains chaotic. As the entire Seoul area is tied up in strong regulations due to the October 15, 2025 Real Estate Measures, market liquidity is rapidly shifting to non-regulated areas such as Guri, Hwaseong, and Yongin. In this post, we analyze the 'balloon effect,' a paradox of regulation, based on the latest data and forecast the market flow for this year.

2026 Real Estate Forecast: The Aftermath of the 10.15 Measures and the Balloon Effect

Whenever you encounter recent real estate news, you often hear the story that "Seoul is frozen, but Gyeonggi-do is on fire." The government pulled out strong regulation cards to catch soaring Seoul house prices, but the market is flowing in unexpected directions, much like a living organism.

1. The Blade of Regulation Points at Seoul (10.15 Measures)

The core of the measures announced on October 15, 2025, was clear. It aimed to block liquidity by binding the entire Seoul area and major regions in Gyeonggi as Regulated Areas (Speculative Overheated Districts / Adjustment Target Areas).

• LTV Reduction: The Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio within Seoul has been lowered to 40%.
• Loan Limit Restrictions: Loan limits for purchasing homes within regulated areas have become stricter, and additional loans for multi-homeowners are virtually blocked.
• Inducing a Transaction Cliff: Buying sentiment has shrunk due to strengthened obligations to submit funding plans, etc.

These high-intensity regulations acted as a dam, temporarily blocking the flow of funds heading toward core areas of Seoul. In fact, the trading volume of Seoul apartments plummeted immediately after the announcement, deepening the 'transaction cliff' phenomenon.

2. When Pressed, the Side Bulges: The Reality of the 'Balloon Effect'

But the problem was what followed. Just as pushing one side of a balloon makes the other side bulge, as Seoul was squeezed, demand quickly moved to Gyeonggi and Incheon areas with fewer regulations. This is clearly revealed in statistics.

Category	Seoul (Regulated Area)	Gyeonggi Non-Regulated Areas (Guri, Hwaseong, etc.)
Transaction Volume	▼ Plummeted (Transaction Cliff)	▲ Surged more than 2x
Price Trend	Flat and Wait-and-See	Continued Rise (Catching Up)
Market Atmosphere	Wait-and-See Dominant	Active Buying Inquiries, Gap Investment Inflow

In particular, transaction volumes exploded after the announcement in non-regulated areas with good accessibility to Seoul or positive development news, such as Guri, Hwaseong, and Yongin's Cheoin-gu. It is the result of an influx of both actual residents and gap investment demand as the sentiment spread that "since Seoul is blocked, let's go to the capital area."

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3. Current State in 2026: Coexistence of Polarization and Wait-and-See

So, what is the market atmosphere like as of January 2026? In a word, it is 'extreme polarization.'

"One Smart House" vs. Rush to Non-Regulated Areas

As owning 'multiple houses' became disadvantageous due to regulations, wealthy individuals are focusing on the 'best single house' in core locations like the Gangnam area of Seoul or the Han River belt. On the other hand, small investors or actual buyers are turning their eyes to small apartments in Seoul (Songpa-gu, etc.) or the outskirts of Gyeonggi-do within the line that does not exceed loan regulation limits.

4. Conclusion: A Time When Unswayed Standards Are Needed

The current real estate market is a complex entanglement of policy paradoxes and market desires. There is still a lot of waiting demand aiming to enter Seoul, but the high wall of loan regulations is blocking the way.

Rather than blindly following the atmosphere and engaging in chase buying in non-regulated areas, it is more important than ever to thoroughly establish your own funding plan while closely observing the government's possibility of additional regulations (designating non-regulated areas as regulated areas, etc.) and interest rate cut signals.

Key Summary:
Seoul has stopped due to the 10.15 measures, but non-regulated areas in the capital region are hot. Rather than being swept away by the balloon effect, a cautious approach is needed by watching policy changes and interest rate trends.

The content of this blog is for reference only for investment judgment, and investment decisions must be made under the individual's judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances can the information in this blog be used as evidence of legal responsibility for investment results.