[Stock Analysis] Samsung Electronics, Is It 'Time for Semiconductors' Again? | Reasons for Price Surge and Valuation Analysis

[Stock Analysis] Samsung Electronics, Is It 'Time for Semiconductors' Again?

Samsung Electronics' recent stock trend is unusual, making the "Semiconductor Winter Theory" seem pointless. Breaking away from its sluggish trend, it is showing a strong rebound, drawing investors' attention once again. In this post, we will analyze the key triggers for Samsung Electronics' recent stock rise and coolly assess whether the current price is in an attractive range using valuation metrics like the Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR).

Samsung Electronics: Causes of the Rise and Precise Valuation Analysis

1. The Trigger for the Rise: Recovery of HBM and AI Semiconductor Cycles

The biggest driving force behind the recent stock price rise is undoubtedly the blossoming of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) market and the explosive increase in demand for memory semiconductors.

Until now, Samsung Electronics' stock price has been suppressed due to evaluations that its entry into the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market was late compared to competitor SK Hynix. However, with the possibility of HBM3E supply to major big tech companies like NVIDIA becoming visible, and Legacy memory prices rebounding, expectations for earnings improvement are strongly flowing into the market.

In particular, the fact that export data and DRAM spot prices are rising together—rather than stopping at mere expectation—strengthens the possibility that this rise is a structural turnaround rather than a 'Dead Cat Bounce'.

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2. Valuation Analysis: Historical Lows of the PBR Band

Although the stock price has risen significantly, the dominant analysis is that it is still in a burden-free zone within the historical valuation band.

Samsung Electronics' Price-to-Book Ratio (PBR) has historically formed a strong support line at the 1.1x level. Despite the recent price rise, the current PBR is still at the lower end of the historical average. This can be interpreted to mean that the stock price is still undervalued relative to the company's net asset value.

Considering that Samsung Electronics' PBR expanded to 1.5x–2.0x during past semiconductor bull cycles, if the industry recovery begins in earnest, it is judged that there is sufficient Upside Potential.

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3. Risk Factors: Foreign Supply/Demand and Technology Gap

Positive outlooks prevail, but risk factors clearly exist.

• Sustainability of Foreign Buying: The recent rise was driven by foreign buying, but profit-taking sell-offs could pour out at any time depending on changes in the Macro environment or exchange rate fluctuations.
• Overcoming the Technology Gap: Continued deficits in the Foundry sector and HBM yield issues. How quickly the technology gap with competitors is narrowed will be a key variable for future stock Re-rating.

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4. Conclusion: Structural Recovery of the Semiconductor Industry

Consequently, Samsung Electronics' current stock price rise reflects a structural Turnaround in the semiconductor industry, not just a simple supply/demand issue.

However, this is a point where fatigue from the short-term surge may accumulate. Therefore, rather than chasing the rally, strategies such as 'buying on the dip' (purchasing in installments during corrections) or a long-term 'Buy & Hold' approach seem valid. In particular, it is more important than ever to check the specific HBM supply volume and whether the foundry deficit is reduced in the upcoming quarterly earnings announcement.

Key Summary:
Samsung Electronics has entered a structural rebound phase driven by the AI semiconductor breeze and HBM supply expectations. The PBR valuation remains attractive, but it is advisable to approach with a split-buying perspective while watching for short-term volatility and the recovery of technological competitiveness.

The content of this blog is for reference only regarding investment judgment, and investment decisions must be made under the individual's judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances can the information in this blog be used as legal evidence for investment results.