[Economic Analysis] 2025 Black Friday Report
On November 28, 2025, U.S. Black Friday closed with a record-high online revenue of $11.8 billion. However, hidden behind these flashy numbers is an unstable consumer sentiment built on inflation and debt. In this post, we will analyze the real face of the 2025 year-end consumer market using the latest data.
[Economic Analysis] The Truth About 2025 Black Friday Sales of $11.8 Billion | Consumption Down, Debt Up?
1. 'Revenue' Increased, but 'Shopping Carts' Got Lighter
According to Adobe Analytics, this Black Friday's online revenue recorded $11.8 billion, a 9.1% increase year-over-year. Looking at the numbers alone, it seems like consumption exploded.
However, detailed data analyzed by Salesforce tells the exact opposite story.
- Order Volume Decline: Total order volume decreased by 1% compared to the previous year.
- Purchase Quantity Decline: The number of items per transaction (Units per Transaction) also dropped by 2%.
- Price Increase: On the other hand, the Average Selling Price (ASP) rose by 7%.
Key Insight:
Consumers bought fewer items than last year, but the amount spent increased due to inflation. This is a classic illusion of 'Cost-driven Growth.'
2. Mobile and AI Take the Lead in Shopping
2025 will be recorded as the year the 'Thumb Tribe' (mobile shoppers) completely dominated the market. According to Adobe data, approximately 53~54.5% of total online sales occurred on mobile devices. Shopping while on the move or in bed, rather than in front of a PC, has become the 'New Normal.'
Furthermore, the influence of AI (Artificial Intelligence) was powerful. Salesforce analyzed that traffic driven by AI-based recommendations and searches surged 5 times compared to the previous year. Consumers clicked on and purchased more products selected by AI.
3. Borrowing from the Future: The Surge of BNPL
The most concerning indicator is the explosive growth of BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) services.
- $750 Million on Credit in a Day: On Black Friday alone, payments made via BNPL reached $747.5 million, an 8.9% increase year-over-year.
- Full Season Forecast: Adobe predicts that BNPL usage will reach a record high of $20.2 billion during this holiday shopping season.
This shows that consumers, lacking immediate cash in a high-interest environment, are using future income as collateral for consumption. This could become a detonator for household financial instability in the first half of next year.
4. Summary of 2025 vs. 2024 Key Metrics
This Black Friday is closer to 'stagnation' wearing the mask of 'growth.' Visitors to offline stores decreased (-3.6%), and the reliance on online channels and debt (BNPL) became distinct.
| Category (Data Source) | 2025 Result | Year-Over-Year (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| Online Total Revenue (Adobe) | $11.8 Billion | +9.1% (Increase) |
| Total Order Volume (Salesforce) | Declining Trend | -1.0% (Decrease) |
| Average Selling Price (ASP) | Increase | +7.0% (Increase) |
| BNPL Usage Amount | $747.5 Million | +8.9% (Increase) |
From an investor's perspective, rather than cheering at the headline of 'Record Revenue,' it is time to be wary of the potential consumption cliff in 2026 brought about by the decline in sales volume (Drop in Q) and the increase in debt.
The content of this blog is for reference only regarding investment decisions, and investment decisions are made under the individual's judgment and responsibility. In no case can the information in this blog be used as evidence of legal responsibility for investment results.
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