[Quant Data] Suneung Day KOSPI: Analysis of 10 Years of Fluctuation (Does the Suneung Jinx Exist?)
[Quant Data] Suneung Day KOSPI Fluctuation Analysis
The proverb, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," emphasizes the importance of asset allocation. In this post, we will analyze the reality of the 'Suneung Jinx', which is frequently discussed as the annual College Scholastic Ability Test (Suneung) approaches, based on official KOSPI data from the last 10 years, from the 2016 to 2025 academic years. The focus is on confirming the market's volatility on Suneung day, based on data and facts, not rumors circulating in the market.
1. Overview of Analysis and Data Source
This analysis is based on the KOSPI closing price on the Suneung implementation day for the past 10 years, utilizing daily closing price data of the KOSPI Composite Index. To clearly understand the market trend on Suneung day, we focus on the rate of change (%) compared to the previous day to interpret the data's meaning.
Backtesting Data
- Data Used: KOSPI Composite Index closing price from November 12, 2015, to November 14, 2024
- Data Source: Yahoo! Finance
- Analysis Indicators: Change from previous day (P), Rate of Change (%)
2. KOSPI Fluctuation Rate Analysis Results on Suneung Day for the Last 10 Years
The table below shows the final closing figures of the KOSPI index on Suneung day over the past 10 years, as personally verified by the customer.
| Academic Year | Suneung Date | KOSPI Close | Change from Previous Day (P) | Rate of Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Academic Year | 2024.11.14 | 2,418.86 | +1.78 | +0.07% |
| 2024 Academic Year | 2023.11.16 | 2,488.18 | +1.51 | +0.06% |
| 2023 Academic Year | 2022.11.17 | 2,442.90 | -3.70 | -0.15% |
| 2022 Academic Year | 2021.11.18 | 2,947.38 | -15.04 | -0.51% |
| 2021 Academic Year | 2020.12.03 | 2,696.22 | +20.32 | +0.76% |
| 2020 Academic Year | 2019.11.14 | 2,139.23 | -0.14 | -0.01% |
| 2019 Academic Year | 2018.11.15 | 2,088.06 | +20.01 | +0.97% |
| 2018 Academic Year | 2017.11.23 | 2,537.15 | -3.36 | -0.13% |
| 2017 Academic Year | 2016.11.17 | 1,980.55 | +0.90 | +0.05% |
| 2016 Academic Year | 2015.11.12 | 1,993.36 | -3.91 | -0.20% |
3. Result Analysis and Implications
3.1. The Reality of the Suneung Jinx: Data supports a steady market.
The data analysis shows that the market closed higher 5 times and closed lower 5 times on Suneung day over the past 10 years, a perfect balance. This clearly demonstrates that the rumor, 'the stock market falls on Suneung day,' is unsubstantiated by data. Rather, the market tends to maintain a wait-and-see attitude without attaching much significance to the specific event.
Notably, 6 out of the 10 years closed with a very minimal change, within ±0.20%. Consecutive years 2024 and 2023 recorded extremely small gains of +0.07% and +0.06%, respectively, clearly indicating a steady market trend. This suggests that the influence of the domestic factor, Suneung, on the stock market is very limited.
3.2. Major Fluctuations Are Due to External Factors
Looking at the four instances where the Suneung day fluctuation rate recorded ±0.5% or more, the cause of the change was far removed from the Suneung itself.
- Largest Rise (+0.97%, 2019 Academic Year): This was the result of external tailwinds at the time, such as expectations for a US-China trade deal, driving the market up.
- Largest Drop (-0.51%, 2022 Academic Year): This reflects the global tightening atmosphere, including the interest rate hike cycle and inflation concerns, in the domestic stock market.
Therefore, it is logical to interpret that the direction of the stock market on Suneung day is governed by the macroeconomic environment (interest rates, exchange rates, global issues) rather than internal Korean issues.
4. Investment Implications and Conclusion
The data suggests that the market on Suneung day does not offer special trading opportunities. Forming a short-term investment strategy by predicting the stock market direction on Suneung day is not advisable because it is difficult to find a meaningful pattern.
Investors should focus on essential market drivers, such as corporate earnings announcements leading up to the end of the year or the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed), rather than paying attention to minor fluctuations on Suneung day, to review their portfolios.
Key Summary:
The KOSPI fluctuation rate on Suneung day over 10 years shows 5 rises and 5 falls, indicating no jinx exists.
Most years show minimal volatility, mostly within ±0.20%, and major market movements are attributed to global economic issues.
The content of this blog is for reference in investment judgment only, and investment decisions must be made under individual judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances can the information in this blog be used as legal evidence for liability regarding investment outcomes.
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