[Data Analysis] Black Friday and the Stock Market
Black Friday, called the "Festival of Consumption," is approaching. While filling their shopping carts, investors ask this question: "Will stock prices also rise on this day when people open their wallets?" In this post, we will look at the date and origin of Black Friday 2025 and directly check the correlation between the US and Korean stock markets through 10 years of past data.
[Data Analysis] Black Friday, Will Stocks Rise?
1. 2025 Black Friday Date and Origin
▲ Analysis of the correlation between Black Friday and the stock market
The day after Thanksgiving, which is the fourth Thursday of November every year, is Black Friday. This year's date is as follows:
- 2025 Black Friday: November 28 (Fri)
There are various theories about the origin of Black Friday, but the most widely accepted in economic terms is the 'Black ink' theory.
In the past when accounting ledgers were written by hand, losses were recorded in red ink and profits in black ink. It originated from the fact that retail stores, which had been in deficit throughout the year, started writing in black ink (surplus) on their ledgers thanks to explosive consumption during this period.
For reference, the US stock market closes early (1:00 PM, local time) on Black Friday.
2. Black Friday Stock Price Analysis (2015~2024)
Then, did stock prices actually rise on Black Friday? Based on data from Yahoo Finance and Investing.com, we checked the closing prices of the S&P500, Nasdaq, and KOSPI for the last 10 years (2015~2024).
The analysis data is based on the Close Price of Black Friday. (Source: Yahoo Finance )
| Year | Date (Black Friday) | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | KOSPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | November 29 | 6,032.38 | 19,218.17 | 2,455.91 |
| 2023 | November 24 | 4,559.34 | 14,250.85 | 2,496.63 |
| 2022 | November 25 | 4,026.12 | 11,226.36 | 2,437.86 |
| 2021 | November 26 | 4,594.62 | 15,491.66 | 2,936.44 |
| 2020 | November 27 | 3,638.35 | 12,205.85 | 2,633.45 |
| 2019 | November 29 | 3,140.98 | 8,665.47 | 2,087.96 |
| 2018 | November 23 | 2,632.56 | 6,938.98 | 2,057.48 |
| 2017 | November 24 | 2,602.42 | 6,889.16 | 2,544.33 |
| 2016 | November 25 | 2,213.35 | 5,398.92 | 1,974.46 |
| 2015 | November 27 | 2,090.11 | 5,127.52 | 2,028.99 |
3. Result Analysis: US is 'Sunny', Korea is 'Questionable'
As a result of data analysis, distinct differences were confirmed by market. The main features are summarized as follows.
1) US Stock Market: Reflection of Consumer Expectations
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq tended to generally rise or maintain a strong flat trend on Black Friday. This is interpreted as expectations for the year-end shopping season having a positive effect on investor sentiment. In particular, although trading volume decreases due to early closing, it was rare for stock prices to fall significantly.
2) Korean Stock Market (KOSPI): Decoupling Phenomenon
On the other hand, KOSPI did not always accompany the rise of the US market. In 2021, it recorded a high level of 2,936 points, but in bear markets like 2018 or 2022, it showed weakness regardless of the atmosphere of the US stock market.
This is because the Korean market reacts more sensitively to the global macroeconomy (interest rates, exchange rates) and foreign supply and demand rather than consumption events like Black Friday. In other words, the formula "US Black Friday = Unconditional KOSPI Rise" does not hold.
4. Conclusion: Wise Investing Through Data
Black Friday is certainly a major pillar of global consumption, but regarding stock investment, cool-headed analysis is needed rather than blind faith. We confirmed that while it can be a positive signal for the US market, it is not an absolute buy signal for domestic investors. Ultimately, checking actual Retail Sales Data and foreign supply/demand trends and responding accordingly, rather than being swept away by the market atmosphere, will be a wise investment strategy.
Key Summary:
On Black Friday, the US stock market generally rises, but the Korean stock market (KOSPI) tends to decouple. Checking macro indicators is essential rather than unconditional expectations.
The content of this blog is only reference material for investment judgment, and investment decisions must be made under the individual's judgment and responsibility. In no case can the information in this blog be used as evidence of legal responsibility for investment results.
댓글
댓글 쓰기