December Rate Cut, Probability Breaks 70%? | Bitcoin and Market, Prelude to a Counterattack

[Rate Cut? November 2025, Expectations Reignited]

As of November 25, 2025, the market atmosphere has reversed sharply. As cracks called a 'Employment Shock' appeared in the seemingly solid US economy, the cooling expectations for a December rate cut have reignited. In this post, we urgently check the recently announced economic indicators, the probability changes in CME FedWatch, and the flow of Bitcoin and the stock market reacting to them.

December Rate Cut, Probability Breaks 70%? Bitcoin and Market Outlook

1. December Cut Probability Nears 70%, Market is 'Betting'

Just a few weeks ago, pessimism that "a December cut is off the table" was dominant due to hawkish remarks from the Fed. However, as of November 25, CME FedWatch is reflecting the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC up to about 70.9%.

Behind this sudden change of stance is the 'Signal of Economic Slowdown'. This is because the recently announced US Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than expected, and above all, the unemployment rate soared to the highest level in 4 years, restimulating the fear of 'Recession'.

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2. Bitcoin, Is the Correction Over? (The $100,000 Battle)

As expectations for a rate cut revive, the most sensitive reaction comes from Bitcoin (BTC). Recently, Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction of nearly 30% from its peak, giving investors 'extreme fear'. Especially in mid-November, the $100,000 line was threatened, and the downward trend seemed to deepen.

However, as the possibility of a December rate cut rises, low-price buying is flowing in, keeping the spark of a rebound alive. Market experts analyze that "although the crypto crash caused deleveraging, if the rate cut becomes reality, it could become the driving force for a year-end rally."

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3. Hoping Santa Gives Gifts at December FOMC, The Key to 'Santa Rally'

Now all eyes are on the upcoming December FOMC (Scheduled for Dec 9-10). Some observe that the meeting could be postponed as employment data aggregation was delayed due to the aftermath of the government shutdown last month, but for now, it is likely to proceed as scheduled.

Ultimately, if the Fed pulls out the 'Preemptive Cut' card to prevent a recession, the correction market in November will be proven to have been a buying opportunity for the year-end 'Santa Rally'. Investors must pay close attention to employment and consumption indicators to be announced for the time being.

Key Points:
- Bad News: Recent Bitcoin crash is a process of excessive leverage resolution.
- Good News: Expectation of December rate cut + Coupling with NY stock market strength.

The content of this blog is for reference only for investment judgment, and investment decisions must be made under the individual's judgment and responsibility. In no case can the information in this blog be used as evidence of legal responsibility for investment results.