[Technical Analysis] Bitcoin $106,341 Emergency Analysis: 13% Plunge, What if the $105,000 Support Level Breaks?

                                           

       

[Virtual Asset Analysis] Bitcoin Technical Analysis (November 4, 2025)

       

On November 4, 2025, the Bitcoin (BTC) market stands at a critical juncture due to the strong selling pressure that has persisted over the past month. The price, which was above approximately $122,260 at the beginning of October, has now dropped to $106,341, undergoing a deep correction of about 13.02%.

       

This post diagnoses the Bitcoin chart at its current price ($106,341), analyzes the key technical price levels ($105,000, $112,000) that will determine the trend's turning point, and suggests directions for investment strategy.

   

   

Bitcoin $106,341 Emergency Analysis: 13% Plunge, What if the $105,000 Support Level Breaks?

   

1. One Month of Selling Pressure and the Current Position

   

Bitcoin's price has continuously formed a descending channel. The movement over the past few days, in particular, has been highly unstable, showing a complete disappearance of short-term buying power. The current price of $106,341 is at the absolute bottom of a strong support zone formed over the medium to long term, and holding this area is the minimum condition for a short-term rebound. Failure to hold could trigger a selling bomb.

   

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2. Key Support and Resistance Analysis

   

The most important factors in the current Bitcoin price movement are the defense of the short-term support and the securing of the trend reversal point.

   

Critical Support

   

       
• $105,000: This is a key medium-to-long-term support level located just below the current price ($106,341). It has served as a psychological defense line defended several times during the October downturn. If this level breaks, the path opens up to the next major support at $98,000, making an additional 8-10% drop inevitable.
   

   

Immediate Resistance

   

       
• $112,000: This is the first hurdle for breaking out of the current descending channel and transitioning to an uptrend. This price level is where selling pressure has recently been heavily concentrated and where the 20-day Moving Average (MA) intersects. The market sentiment can only turn positive if it strongly breaks through and successfully establishes support (S/R Flip) at this point.
   

   

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3. Moving Average and RSI Indicator Diagnosis

   

Major auxiliary indicators also reflect short-term weakness, and movement in the current zone is crucial.

     

       
• Moving Average (MA): The current price has broken below the major short-term moving averages (20-day, 50-day MA). The $112,000 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is located, now acts as strong resistance, and this MA must be recovered quickly to prevent a medium-term downtrend reversal.
       
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The daily RSI is currently hovering just before oversold (near 30). This suggests a possibility of a technical rebound due to excessive selling pressure, but it should be noted that the RSI can remain in the oversold zone for an extended period if the bearish trend continues.
   

   

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4. Trading Strategies by Scenario

   

Bitcoin is currently right in front of the critical support level of $105,000. The market's direction will be determined by the movement around these two key price levels, and investors must prepare a clear 대응 strategy for each scenario.

   

Scenario A: Downside Breakout (Risk Reduction Strategy)

   

       
• Condition: If the $105,000 support level breaks on a daily closing basis.
       
• Trading Strategy: Strong selling pressure will inevitably lead to panic selling, with a drop to the $98,000 level becoming unavoidable. Liquidate 50% or more of current holdings to reduce risk and observe until support is confirmed below $100,000.
   

   

Scenario B: Trend Reversal (Short-Term Buy Strategy)

   

       
• Condition: If the $112,000 resistance level, which is the top of the descending channel, is strongly broken and support (S/R Flip) is established above that price level.
       
• Trading Strategy: This is the point where the short-term downtrend is confirmed to be over. Aggressive traders should consider entering a short-term buy upon this confirmation, setting a clear Stop-Loss line below $111,000 with the target of re-entering $120,000.
   

       

        Key Summary: Investment Strategies by Scenario
        ① If $105,000 Breaks: Position reduction and stop-loss (Risk Management)
        ② If $112,000 is Broken and Held as Support: Consider buy entry (Confirming Trend Reversal)    

   

     

The content of this blog is for reference in investment judgment only, and investment decisions must be made under individual judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances can the information in this blog be used as evidence for legal liability concerning investment outcomes.