Bitcoin Market Outlook Q4 2025: Analysis of the 'Final Bull Run Phase' Amidst Macro Tensions

- 10월 15, 2025

Bitcoin Market Outlook Q4 2025: Analysis of the 'Final Bull Run Phase' Amidst Macro Tensions

[Analysis of Key Drivers of the Bitcoin Market in Q4 2025]

In the early part of Q4 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced temporary volatility due to geopolitical tensions. However, this did not damage the market's fundamental upward momentum. Instead, it provided an opportunity to confirm a strong support base with a solid recovery. In particular, October, which historically recorded the highest average return, combined with the 'Uptober' effect, suggests a possibility of entering a 'Melt-Up' phase that could push the Bitcoin price to an all-time high by the end of the year. A melt-up refers to a phenomenon where investors rush to buy to fill their portfolios, even late in the game, as the market's structural upward momentum accelerates. In this phase, prices tend to rise sharply in a short period.

Bitcoin Market Outlook Q4 2025: Analysis of the 'Final Bull Run Phase' Amidst Macro Tensions

1. Three Key Factors for General Investors to Watch

Amidst short-term market noise and volatility, there are three structural factors that investors must understand. These factors are crucial indicators that determine the current market trend and future direction, and they underpin Bitcoin's long-term growth potential.

1. Structural Support Base (Spot ETF)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have completely changed the landscape of the Bitcoin market. Institutional investors, who previously had limited access, can now easily invest in Bitcoin through regulated financial products like ETFs. Even during the recent sharp decline caused by geopolitical shocks, spot ETFs consistently recorded net inflows, proving institutional demand that provides a strong price floor around the $110,000 level. This means that institutions view Bitcoin not as short-term speculation but as a long-term portfolio component, and they are continuously accumulating it. This steady buying pressure from institutions acts as a key factor in reducing market volatility and increasing stability.

2. Liquidity Catalyst (Fed Interest Rate Cuts)

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently operating its monetary policy with the goals of easing inflation and achieving a soft landing for the economy. The market widely anticipates that the Fed will enact additional interest rate cuts by the end of the year. This could act as a catalyst for the movement of approximately $7.4 trillion in idle capital in money market funds (MMFs) into lower-yielding risk assets. MMFs have served as a safe haven in a high-interest rate environment, absorbing large amounts of capital. However, when an interest rate cutting cycle begins, there is a greater possibility that capital will flow into cryptocurrency markets, including Bitcoin, in search of higher returns. This potential liquidity injection could be a powerful driver to accelerate Bitcoin's price appreciation.

3. Limited Supply (Mining Difficulty and Halving)

The supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million, which is the foundation of its scarcity. The fourth halving in April 2024 already cut the new Bitcoin supply in half. To make matters worse, the recent Bitcoin mining difficulty has reached an all-time high. Mining difficulty is structured to increase as the hashrate, or mining competition, intensifies. This indicates that more miners are participating in the market, while also highlighting Bitcoin's scarcity even more. This supply-demand imbalance is one of the most crucial structural factors driving long-term price appreciation.

2. Q4 2025 Outlook and Investment Strategy

Although the Bitcoin market is currently exposed to external shocks such as geopolitical tensions, it has three strong structural support bases: steady institutional demand through spot ETFs, the expectation of liquidity inflow from potential Fed rate cuts, and a limited supply due to the halving and rising mining difficulty. These complex factors support Bitcoin's long-term upward trajectory.

Therefore, when formulating an investment strategy, it is important to take a structural approach based on the three key factors mentioned above, rather than being swayed by short-term market noise. A prudent approach would be to trust Bitcoin's resilience and growth potential and consider it as a part of your portfolio from a long-term perspective. This is not just about predicting prices, but about understanding the intrinsic value of the Bitcoin ecosystem and adopting an appropriate mindset for investing.

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The content of this blog is for reference in investment decisions only, and investment decisions should be made based on individual judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances should the information in this blog be used as evidence for legal liability for investment outcomes.

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