[Real Estate Policy Analysis] 10.15 Real Estate Measure In-Depth Dissection (Part 1) - A Powerful 'Shock Therapy

                                           

       

[10.15 Real Estate Measure Part 1]

       

On October 15, 2025, the government announced the 'Housing Market Stabilization Measures'. This is evaluated as the most aggressive and extensive policy intervention to stabilize the overheated metropolitan real estate market, completely different in dimension from the previous fragmented 'pincer regulation' stance. It clearly revealed the government's will to apply strong 'shock therapy' to the market.

       

In this Part 1 post, we will conduct an in-depth analysis of the background behind the 10.15 measures and their key contents, especially the two powerful pillars: the unprecedented 'triple regulation' and 'financial control'.

   

   

[Real Estate Policy Analysis] 10.15 Measure In-Depth Dissection (Part 1) - Everything About the Powerful 'Shock Therapy'

   

1. Policy Background: Why was 'Shock Therapy' Necessary?

   

The background for the emergence of the 10.15 measures is clear. In the second half of 2025, especially after June, the metropolitan real estate market showed an uncontrollable overheating trend.

   

The 'pincer regulation' method previously introduced by the government only caused a 'balloon effect', where pressing one area caused another to pop up, effectively resulting in policy failure. The market continued its upward trend as if mocking the government's regulations, and the anxiety and dissatisfaction of non-homeowners reached an extreme.

   

In this situation, the government judged that a powerful 'shock therapy', different in dimension from existing ones, was necessary to quell the market's speculative sentiment at once. This is the essence of the 10.15 measures.

        

                  

      

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2. Key 1: The Unprecedented Shackles of 'Triple Regulation'

   

The first pillar of the 10.15 measures is the simultaneous designation of the entire Seoul area and 12 key regions in Gyeonggi as 3 key regulatory zones.

   

       
• Adjustment Target Area
       
• Speculative Overheating Zone
       
• Land Transaction Permit Zone
   

   

Applying these three regulations simultaneously, and to such a wide area as the entire city of Seoul, is an unprecedented event in history. This is a strong expression of will to fundamentally block 'regulatory arbitrage (balloon effect)' that uses the small gaps between regulatory zones.

   

What is particularly noteworthy is the designation of the 'Land Transaction Permit Zone'. This essentially means that housing transactions themselves will not be permitted unless it is for 'actual residency' purposes. Due to this measure, 'gap investment' (buying a house with a tenant) and speculative investments using corporations were fundamentally blocked. It has placed powerful shackles on the market's 'transactions' themselves.

   

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3. Key 2: 'Financial Control' to Block Liquidity

   

The second pillar is strong financial regulation that directly blocks the flow of money into the market, i.e., liquidity. This is because even if transactions are blocked by regulation, if money circulates, the market will find a way somehow.

   

First, the Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio limit for high-priced homes was significantly reduced. By making the LTV 0 for apartments exceeding 1.5 billion KRW, it effectively removed the ladder for anyone not a cash-rich individual to enter the high-priced housing market.

   

Second, even 'Jeonse' (lump-sum deposit) loans were included in the Debt Service Ratio (DSR) regulation. This is a measure evaluated in the market as a 'nuclear bomb-level' regulation. This made the 'leverage using Jeonse loans', which was a key link in gap investment, virtually impossible. It signifies an intent to completely block the funding sources for speculative demand.

   

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4. Conclusion: Administering a Powerful 'Painkiller'

   

In summary, the 10.15 measures are the most powerful prescription to suppress speculative demand by tying up actual transactions with 'triple regulation' and blocking the money flow with 'financial control'. The government has sent a clear signal to the market that it will definitely catch market overheating through this 'shock therapy'.

        

        Part 1 Key Summary:
        The 10.15 measures are a powerful 'shock therapy' that blocked transactions with 'triple regulation' and liquidity with 'financial control'. While it served as a 'painkiller' to catch short-term overheating, it did not solve the market's fundamental problem of supply.    

   

However, this powerful 'painkiller' did not solve the market's fundamental problem: 'supply shortage'. Although it succeeded in catching speculative sentiment in the short term, what side effects will it produce in the long term?

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In the next Part 2 post, we will cover in detail the immediate impact of these 10.15 measures on the market (transaction ice age), structural changes (polarization, supply cliff), and our corresponding response strategies.

      

▶ Go to 10.15 Real Estate Measure Part 2 Post

   

       

The contents of this blog are for reference purposes only for investment decisions, and investment decisions must be made based on individual judgment and responsibility. In no case can the information on this blog be used as evidentiary material for legal responsibility regarding investment results.