Bitcoin September Outlook: Bullish Signals Amidst 'Fear', What's the Reason?
[The World of Virtual Assets: Bitcoin Market in September]
The saying, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket," emphasizes the importance of asset allocation, and the virtual asset market also shows the need for multi-faceted analysis amidst unpredictable volatility. The Bitcoin (BTC) market recently hit a new record high in mid-August, surpassing $123,000 at one point, but has entered a correction phase, falling to the $107,000 range in early September. This decline is attributed to historical concerns about the 'September Effect' and a massive net outflow of $750 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs last month.
Bitcoin in September, are bullish signals in the midst of 'fear' real?
1. Technical Analysis: Support Levels and Bullish Patterns in a Downward Phase
The recent Bitcoin price has fallen after hitting a record high and is trading around the $107,000 level. This is a typical correction phase after a strong bullish rally, and the market is currently in a state where selling pressure is dominant.
Summary of Key Technical Indicators and Price Levels
| Indicator/Price Level | Description |
|---|---|
| Key Resistance Levels | $110,485, $112,000, $116,000 |
| 9-day Moving Average | $112,091 (Strong resistance level) |
| Immediate Support Level | $107,656 |
| Key Support Level | $104,582 (Potential for further drop to $100,000 if breached) |
| RSI | Sharp drop, dominant selling pressure, approaching oversold territory |
| Dead Cross | Potential for strengthening downtrend if it occurs |
Looking at the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen sharply, indicating that selling pressure is dominant and approaching oversold territory. If a 'Dead Cross', where the short-term moving average crosses below the mid-term moving average, occurs, the downtrend could strengthen. However, the current price movement also has the potential to resemble a 'Flag' pattern, which is a temporary correction after a strong uptrend. This pattern suggests a possibility of a return to a bullish rally after the correction.
2. On-chain Data Analysis: The Real Movements of 'Whales'
On-chain Data analysis is useful for transparently understanding the actual behavior and capital flow of market participants based on all transaction records on the blockchain.
The Bitcoin exchange inflow/outflow ratio recently hit a 3-year low. This means that investors are moving Bitcoin to personal external wallets for long-term holding (HODL) rather than keeping it in exchange wallets for short-term trading. Exchange outflows are a strong signal of confidence in long-term value.
In addition, large-scale transactions from 'Whale' wallets, which move hundreds of billions of won worth of Bitcoin at once, have been detected. While such large movements can cause short-term volatility, they are interpreted as a sign of 'Smart Money' confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
3. Macroeconomic and Institutional Factors: Accelerating Institutional Adoption
The Bitcoin market in September 2025 will be significantly influenced not only by technical factors but also by macroeconomic and geopolitical variables. The most important macroeconomic variable is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Market expectations for an interest rate cut are growing ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 16-17. When interest rates are lowered, the possibility of capital flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin increases.
Meanwhile, expert opinions are divided on Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge. Some analyses suggest that Bitcoin absorbs bond demand during periods of inflation, while others warn that it can be a risky strategy due to its lack of direct correlation with monetary policy. Furthermore, Bitcoin has recently shown a trend of increasing correlation with the US stock market, particularly the S&P 500.
From an institutional perspective, the market's entry into the mainstream is accelerating. The US Trump administration has pledged pro-virtual asset policies and is moving to resolve regulatory uncertainty by passing the 'Virtual Asset 3 Laws'. Ultimately, if legal grounds are established, institutional investors' entry into the market will further accelerate. However, such institutional changes are not always smooth and can cause short-term volatility.
4. Key September Events and Overall Outlook
The main turning points for the Bitcoin market in September are as follows:
- US August Employment Report Release (September 5): Can directly influence the Fed's interest rate decision and cause short-term market volatility.
- US Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC Meeting (September 16-17): This is the single most influential event for the market this month. The interest rate decision and the release of the 'dot plot' will be important benchmarks that determine the market's direction.
- Korea Blockchain Week (KBW 2025, September 22-28): Statements from key figures in the global Web3.0 industry can provide new momentum or stimulate short-term investment sentiment.
5. Suggestions for Investors
The Bitcoin market in September 2025 will be a period where short-term downward pressure and long-term upward potential are in sharp conflict. While the 'September Effect' and the net outflow of funds from ETFs act as short-term downward pressure, the expectation of an interest rate cut and the strengthening long-term holding sentiment shown by on-chain data are expected to support price floor rigidity.
Short-term investors should expect high volatility around key events like the FOMC and focus on thorough risk management, such as refraining from leveraged investments. It is also important to closely monitor the key support level of $104,582. If this support level is broken, you should be prepared for a further decline.
For long-term investors, a reasonable approach is to focus on the strengthening long-term investment sentiment shown by on-chain data and institutional changes, rather than being swayed by short-term 'fear' sentiment.
Key Summary:
The Bitcoin market has long-term growth potential despite short-term downward pressure. Prudent investment is necessary, taking into account a combination of factors such as the FOMC meeting and on-chain data.
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The content of this blog is for reference for investment decisions only, and investment decisions should be made under one's own judgment and responsibility. Under no circumstances can the information in this blog be used as legal evidence for investment outcomes.
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